Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting – Current Practice, Challenges and Opportunities

 

Several US agencies are charged with operationally producing seasonal streamflow forecasts, which 
are a critical input to water management throughout the US, and particularly in the western US, 
where flood-prone winters and dry summers necessitate careful decision-making over water 
allocation and use.  Water supply forecasts (WSFs) that predict the volume of snowmelt-driven 
runoff in the spring and early summer, for example, are a critical product informing the 
regulation of major storage projects such as Lakes Powell and Mead.  This presentation focuses on 
the tradition of water supply forecasting and describes an approach for diagnosing the sources of 
prediction skill.  The talk will also highlight strengths and weaknesses of the current practice 
and suggest potential methodological opportunities for WSF improvement.