Advances in computational hydrology to support water resources planning and management: Quantitative 
hydrologic storylines of climate change impacts and new hydrologic prediction capabilities. 

Abstract

Climate and hydrologic applications for water resources planning and management – such as climate 
impact assessments and streamflow forecasting – commonly neglect important sources of uncertainty, 
especially those associated with internal climate system variability, downscaling methods, and 
hydrologic modeling. Too often resources are limited and tools are unavailable to evaluate more than a 
single source of uncertainty (e.g., using multiple global climate models). Scientists in RAL’s 
Hydrometeorological Applications Program at the National Center for Atmospheric Research are 
collaborating with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the Bureau of Reclamation, and the University of 
Washington to build tools that will help to characterize uncertainties in climate impacts assessments 
and improve ensemble streamflow forecasts. Through developing new methods, models, and datasets, this 
research improves the fundamental building blocks on which hydrometeorological analyses and 
applications depend. It also, importantly, provides useful tools and data resources for both 
researchers and practitioners to better reveal climate change risks, more effectively evaluate future 
change and adaptation options, and improve management of extreme hydrologic events.