Hydrology and errors in climate models


Abstract:

Large Errors in the climate model simulations of the earth's climate are
shown to start with the first two steps of climate system energetics:
the interaction of
solar radiation with the atmosphere and earth's surface and the return
of the solar radiation absorbed at the surface to the atmosphere through
turbulent heat fluxes. Interestingly, one of the main causes of these errors is the H2O molecule, apparantly in all its phases. Because positive feedbacks due to H20 are necessary for any appreciable warming due to increased CO2 our inability to simulate even the mean state of the present climate due to the non-linearities associated with water has large implications for predicting extreme states (floods, droughts) in the future.