Application of Radar-Rainfall Estimates to Probable Maximum Precipitation in the Carolinas
R. Jason Caldwell, J. England, V. Sankovich
Flood Hydrology, Bureau of Reclamation, Denver, CO, United States

ABSTRACT
Extreme storm rainfall data are essential in the assessment of potential impacts on design precipitation amounts, which are used in flood design criteria for dams and nuclear power plants. Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) from National Weather Service Hydrometeorological Report 51 (HMR51) is currently used for design rainfall estimates in the eastern U.S. The extreme storm database associated with the report has not been updated since the early 1970s. In the past several decades, several extreme precipitation events have occurred that have the potential to alter the PMP values, particularly across the Southeast United States (e.g., Hurricane Floyd 1999). Unfortunately, these and other large precipitation-producing storms have not been analyzed with the detail required for application in design studies.

This study focuses on warm-season tropical cyclones (TCs) in the Carolinas, as these systems are the critical maximum rainfall mechanisms in the region. The goal is to discern if recent tropical events may have reached or exceeded current PMP values. We have analyzed 10 storms using modern datasets and methodologies that provide enhanced spatial and temporal resolution relative to point measurements used in past studies. Specifically, hourly multisensor precipitation reanalysis (MPR) data are used to estimate storm total precipitation accumulations at various durations throughout each storm event. The accumulated grids serve as input to depth-area-duration calculations. Individual storms are then maximized using back-trajectories to determine source regions for moisture. The development of open source software has made this process time and resource efficient.

Based on the current methodology, two of the ten storms analyzed have the potential to challenge HMR51 PMP values. Maximized depth-area curves for Hurricane Floyd indicate exceedance at 24- and 72-hour durations for large area sizes, while Hurricane Fran (1996) appears to exceed PMP at large area sizes for short-duration, 6-hour storms. Utilizing new methods and data, however, requires careful consideration of the potential limitations and caveats associated with the analysis and further evaluation of the newer storms within the context of historical storms from HMR51. Here, we provide a brief background on extreme rainfall in the Carolinas, along with an overview of the methods employed for converting MPR to depth-area relationships. Discussion of the issues and limitations, evaluation of the various techniques, and comparison to HMR51 storms and PMP values are also presented.