Incorporating Climate Forecasts into Aquatic Management Using a Risk-based Framework
Erin Towler, Ph.D.
Project Scientist
Regional Climate Section, MMM
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)

To sustain healthy river systems, it is generally accepted that a balance must be struck between water withdrawals for human use and the amount required for aquatic ecosystems. However, as water demands intensify and climate becomes more uncertain, achieving this balance becomes more and more challenging. As such, additional tools are needed to systematically incorporate climate information into management strategies. To address these issues, I'll present a risk-based framework that is demonstrated for a rural community in southwest Montana, where drought and competing water demands have raised questions of sustainability. The research explores the use of probabilistic climate forecasts to predict summer low flow characteristics that directly segue with local fish conservation efforts. The talk will emphasize the importance of local stakeholder involvement and show how the generalized framework could incorporate other climate information, such as decadal projections, and could be applied to other natural resource management contexts.