Hydrologic frequency analysis: History and contemporary research

Hydrologic frequency analysis refers to the estimation of recurrence probabilities of rare hydrologic events such as 
floods and is fundamental to water resources engineering design and management. Traditional frequency analysis 
models make assumptions of spatial and temporal stationarity which may be inadequate in a changing climate. In this 
talk I will discuss the genesis of traditional frequency analysis models from the 1940s to the mid 1990s including 
single site and regional frequency analysis (RFA) models. In the last 20 years, numerous new techniques have been 
developed which make fewer assumptions and are in agreement with extreme value theory (EVT). In the second part of 
this talk I will discuss some modern frequency analysis approaches, including some research for my PhD.  
Contemporary approaches utilize Bayesian hierarchical models to robustly capture uncertainty, spatial and 
multivariate dependence, and incorporate nonstationary climatic influences.