Information

• Course Outline / Syllabus
• Prerequisite - topics covered in CVEN5454

• Elements of Statistical Learning
• An Introduction to Statistical Learning with R
  
• Lecture Slides / Videos
• Spatio-Temporal Statistics with R
• Graphical Neural Networks
• Statistical Rethinking - Book
• Applied Spatial Data Analysis with R - Springer
• Hands on Machine Learning with R
  

• Simple Linear Regression
• Multiple Regression
• Prof. Lall's Regression Notes
• Helsel's online book

• Prof. Rodriguez GLM Page - Notes, R etc
• Bookdown - Roback and Legler
  
• Reference: Prof. C. Czado-TUM-GLM-Lectures
• Generalized Linear Models - Fahrmeir and Tutz

• Beyond Linearity
• Variable Selection, Lasso, Spline etc.
  
• Loader Book Online - Springer
  
• Local Regression and Likelihood
• Loader - Chaps 2&3
• Loader - Chaps 4&5
• Lecture Notes (John Fox)
• Smoothing Techniques in R
  

• Dr. Doug Nychka-NCAR (CU Spatial Stats)
• Dr. Doug Nychka-NCAR (Mines Spatial Stats)
  
• Dr. Doug Nychka-NCAR (Mines Spatial Stats)
• Dr. Nychka's page - lots of things
• Applied Spatial Data Analysis with R - Springer

Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling
Bayes resources - notes, presentations, etc.

• Statistical Rethinking - Book
  
• Statistical Rethinking - Videos

Multivariate Methods - PCA/CCA

• Chapter 6 Wilks book
• EOF-vonStorch-Chap13
• CCA-vonStorch-Chap14
• EOF Primer - Rotated PCA and Extended PCA

Clustering/Trees/Data Mining

• Elements of Statistical Learning
  
  • Chapter 14/14.3 - Cluster Anal
    
  • Chapter 9/9.2 - CART
• CART - Notes - R
  
• Survey of Cluster Analysis
  
• Extremes Clustering R - Bracken et al. (2015)
• An Introduction to Statistical Learning (with R)
• Lecture Slides / Videos

• Dr. McCreight's Lectures/Packages - Cluster/CART
• Lecture 1
  
• Lecture 2 
• James' Packages

Self Organizing Maps (SOMs)

• Self Organizing Maps (SOM) - Chapter 14 of
  
• Elements of Statistical Learning
• Kistawal et al. (2013, WRR)
• Sean Horvath Lecture
• Sean SOM Example-data-code

Extreme Value Distribution Resources

• Extremes Book by Stuart Coles
  
• NCAR extRemes Tool Kit/Tutorial
• Eric Gilleland Page - Resources/Software/pubs etc
  
• fExtremes package help
  
• Rick Katz's Lecture Notes
• Lecture 1 - Block Maxima - GEV
  
• Lecture 2 - Peaks over Threshold - GPD
  
• Lecture 3 - Issues from EVA
  
• Eric Gilleland's EVA Lecture
• EVA Analysis, in2extRemes Package
• Extreme Value PDFs as Derived PDFs

Hidden Markov Models

• Hidden Markov Models for Time Series - CRC
• Billy's Github resource
• Cameron's resource
  

Copulas

• Dr. Linyin Chenge's Lecture
• Joy of Copula
• R-package Copula
• Multivariate Changepoint
• Conditional Modeling - Liu etal, JGR 2015
• Copula Regression - GCMR

Singular Spectrum Analysis

• Review paper (Ghil et al., 2001)
• SSA-toolkit
• K-spectra for Mac OS X

Spectral Analysis

• Fourier Representation - Wei Chap10
• Spectrum - Wei Chap 12
• Tarboton Presentation
• Wavelets - Ken's Presentation
• Torrence & Compo

• R project
• R Studio
• Datacamp
  
• Very Good R-tutorial - Thomas Jagger
  
  • Hurricane Data and Refs Page
    
• Catherine Dressler Report
• R-tutorial documents
• Spatial Data Visualization
• Springer R-books
• BookDowns
  

• Homework #1 (1/23 - 2/13, 2025)
• Sample Projects from Fall 2021

• Homework #2 (02/25 -03/21, 2025)
  • Codes/Commands/data

• Homework #3 (04/08 -05/6, 2025)
  • Codes/Commands/data

• Simple Linear Regression
• R-tutorial on simple linear regression
  
• R Commands
  
• Multiple Linear Regression
• R-tutorial on Multiple Linear Regression
  
• R commands
  
• Model Diagnostics
  
• Confidence and Prediction Interval
• Nonparametric confidence intervals
  
• Logistic Regression

•  1 and 2 variable data sets
• Fit a best local polynomial model (using GCV)
• Perform model diagnostics
• Estimate the function at several locations
• Plot/Map the estimates and error variance

R-JAGS Manual

•  Spatial Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling
• Code/commands for results in Verdin et al. (2015)
  
• STAN examples
• spBayes - R Package

R-Session - Multivariate Methods 

•  PCA
• SVD
• CCA
• Multivariate Forecasting
• SST and PDSI data (examples)

• Extreme Value Analysis (GEV+Cov)
  
• Towler et al. (2010)
• Bracken et al. (2018, WRR)
• Van dusen et al. (2020, Climate Risk Mgmt)
• K-NN Resampling/Simulation/Forecasting
  
• K-nn resampling (streamflow simulation)
  
  • Lall and Sharma (1996)
  K-nn resampling - streamflow forecasting
  • Souza et al. (2003)
  Multivariate K-nn resampling (weather generator)
  
  • Rajagopalan and Lall (1999)
  • Yates et al. (2003)
  • Gangopadhyay et al. (2005)
  • Apipattanavis et al. (2007) - Markov Chain + K-nn resampling
  • Gangopadhyay et al. (2009) - Flow reconstruction
• Spatial Data Filling/Simulation - Water Quality Application Towler et al. (2009)

• Hidden Markov Modeling & Simulation
  
• Bracken et al. (2014)
• Erkyihun et al. (2017, ASCE, JHE)
• Suchetana et al. (2018, STOTEN)
• Kwon et al. (2009, SERRA)
• Bracken et al. (2016, WRR) - NHHMM
• Wavelet Based Simulation (WARM)
  
  • Kwon et al. (2007)
    
  • Nowak et al. (2011, J.Hydrology)
  • Erkyihun et al. (2016, Water Res. Research)
  • Hidden Markov + WARM
  • Kwon et al. (2008)
  • Brunner and Gilleland (2020)

• May-Ostendorp et al. (2011) - Building Energy
• Esmaeili et al. (2015) - Construction Safety
• Kohler et al. 2016 (Weibull GLM)
• Weirich et al. 2015 (Gamma GLM + Markov)
• Weirich et al. 2011 (GLM - Gamma + Logistic)

Local Polynomial Applications

•  Seasonal Streamflow Forecast      
  
• Grantz et al. (2005)
• Bracken et al., (2010)
  
• Streamflow Simulation
• Prairie et al. (2005)
• Review paper on forecasting and Simulation
• Rajagopalan et al. (2005)
  
• Water Quality Modeling (Local GLM)
  
• Towler et al., 2010 (Local Logistic)
  
• Towler et al., 2009 (Local Poly)
• Towler et al., 2013 (Local Poisson)
• Samson et al., 2016 (Local Gamma)

GAM & Bayesian Dynamic Regression

• Krishnaswamy et al (2015)- Monsoon-ENSO-IOD
• Supplemental

Hierarchical Modeling in Space - Kriging

• Kriging, Local Polynomial for Blending
• Verdin et al. (2016)
  
• Bayesian - Satellite + Observed Precip Blending
• Verdin et al. (2015)
• Spatial Hierarchical - Waste Water Treatment
• Suchetana et al. (2016)
• Bayesian - Spatial Extremes
• Bracken et al. (2016)
• Ossondon et al. (2021, J. Hydrol)
• Ossondon et al. (2021, WRR) 
• Ossondon et al. (2021, HESS)
  
• Bayesian Logistic Regression
• Horvath et al. (2020)
  
• Stochastic Precipitation, Temp & Weather Gen
• Weather Gen - Verdin et al. 2014
• Spatial Precip Generator - Kleiber et al. 2012
• Spatial Temp. Generator - Kleiber et al. 2013

CART

• Predictive Modeling for SMART building
  
• May-Ostendorp et al. (2012)
• CART-Waste Water Treatment
• Suchetana et al. (2017 - STOTEN)
  
• Machine Learning for Construction Safety
• Tixier et al. (2016)
  

• Extremes Clustering
  
• Bracken et al. (2015)
• Bernard et al. (2013)
• SOM
• Kishtawal et al. (2013)
• Horvath et al. (2021)

Multivariate Modeling and Forecasting

• Construction Safety Risk tolerance
• Salas et al. (2020)
  
• Multisite time series ensemble forecasting
  
• PCA + Local Polynomial - multi-model ensemble
• forecast Regonda et al. (2006a)
• May-Ostendorp et al. (2012)
• Objective Multi-model selection (Mendoza et al. 2014)
• Multi-model combination (Mendoza et al. 2015)
  
• Index gauge forecast + disaggregation
• Bracken et al. (2010)
  
• PCA, ICA + regression
• Westra et al. (2008)
• Westra et al. (2007)

• Multisite categorical forecasting
• PCA + Logistic Regression Regonda et al. (2006b)
• May-Ostendorp et al. (2012)

Multivariate Modeling and Forecasting

• Construction Safety Risk tolerance
• Salas et al. (2020)
  
• Multisite time series ensemble forecasting
  
• PCA + Local Polynomial - multi-model ensemble
• forecast Regonda et al. (2006a)
• May-Ostendorp et al. (2012)
• Objective Multi-model selection (Mendoza et al. 2014)
• Multi-model combination (Mendoza et al. 2015)
  
• Index gauge forecast + disaggregation
• Bracken et al. (2010)
  
• PCA, ICA + regression
• Westra et al. (2008)
• Westra et al. (2007)

• Multisite categorical forecasting
• PCA + Logistic Regression Regonda et al. (2006b)
• May-Ostendorp et al. (2012)
  

• SVD/CCA
• Wallace et al. (1992) - early application of SVD
  
• Bretheton et al. (1991) - intercomparison SVD/CCA
  
• Cherry (2003)  -  SVD/CCA - issues
• Newmann and Sardeshmukh (1995) - SVD caveats
  
• Uvo et al. (1998)  - Application
• Rajagopalan et al. (2000) - Application
• Multisite Forecasting using CCA
• Flow - Salas et al. (2009, Project report )
• Flow - Salas et al. (2011)
• Pond Counts - Abel et al. (2019)
  
• CCA based reconstruction
  
• Gill et al. (2016, SST/Wind recon)
• Gill et al. (2017, Rainfall recon)
  

• Multisite Simulation using PCA, ICA + bootstrap
• Westra et al. (2008)
• SSA + Forecasting
• Keppenne and Ghil (1992)
• Moon and Lall (1996)